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Jul 2026

2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook: Third Quarter

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Construction in 2026: Where is it heading, and where do you land?

FMI's Q3 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook forecasts total U.S. construction spending at $2.214 trillion this year, down just more than 1% after the Census Bureau's July 1 benchmark revision. But the flat headline is the least interesting thing about this year. Underneath it, segments are pulling hard in opposite directions, and the gap between winners and laggards is widening. Where you sit matters more than where the total lands.

Key Insights

  • Manufacturing is the swing factor. After years of semiconductor fabs and battery plants pouring concrete, that wave has crested. Manufacturing construction drops 17.4% to $178 billion as those megaprojects wind down their heavy-spending phases, the single biggest reason the overall number is negative.
  • Data centers and power are the next cycle. Data center construction is up 21.4% to $60 billion, and power spending is on track to hit $274 billion by 2030. One is carrying nonresidential building right now, the other is loading up for the strongest multi-year run of any segment we track. Together they show where the money goes next.
  • The policy calendar is stacked. Section 122 tariffs lapsed July 24 and were replaced by new Section 301 duties. Federal appropriations and IIJA reauthorization both hit their expiration on September 30.

Download the full Outlook for segment-by-segment forecasts across all markets, NRCI sentiment data, and metropolitan growth projections through 2030.

Watch Jay Bowman's latest video for his perspective on the Q3 2026 U.S. and Canadian engineering and construction markets.